Pick a city.
Each city is modeled at its county, the smallest area with complete public data on births, deaths, migration, permits, workers and jobs. New York City is its five boroughs combined. Every city uses the same engine, levers and tests, fitted to its own 2010–2025 history.
No city matches that search.
How each city maps to counties.
The model area is the county (or counties) that contain the city. Most counties include suburbs or unincorporated areas beyond the city limits, so the area modeled is usually larger than the city itself. Fit columns give the mean absolute percent error against recorded values, 2010–2025.
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
In progress
These cities are not listed yet because their model does not meet the fit standard above. The reason is given for each.
What is in each model.
People
Eighteen five-year age groups, with births, deaths, people moving in and people moving out. Rates come from Census Bureau estimates and the American Community Survey.
Homes
Housing units built (from building permits) and lost. Empty homes draw movers in, which fills homes: the model's main balancing loop.
Workers and jobs
The working-age population sets the labor force through participation by age; jobs follow the labor force with a delay. Fitted to Bureau of Labor Statistics data.
